Nuggets V Mavericks: what did this matchup reveal about two title contenders?

 Hello, I’m Carlos Andres Segrera, and this is the NBA from the mind of a high schooler.

Today I wanted to give myself a bit of a challenge: To focus solely on one game. Now I didn’t just pick the Heat game from last night, knowing I could talk about the Heat for hours. I wanted to place myself in unfamiliar territory without forcing myself to talk about two irrelevant teams. So, today we will be breaking down last night’s matchup between the Mavericks and the Nuggets, where the Nuggets ended up winning 122-120.  Knowing I wanted to dedicate an entire post to this game, I ended up watching it three times. The first time was live, casually with my family; the second time was the morning after, where I took some notes; and the third and final time I muted the game and did the broadcast myself as a way to practice. 

The Nuggets started off the season slow and there were a lot of questions about the legitimacy of their finals contention. Currently they are on the longest win streak in the league, other than the Cavs who remain undefeated, which they completed during a 5 game home stand. The Mavericks are currently 5-5, edging them out of the play-in (they would be the 3rd seed in the East, but that’s besides the point). Neither team started the season as they wished, but the nuggets have this 5 game win streak to thank for the 4th seed, and the Mavs still haven’t been able to gain any real traction. Regardless, of all that these are two teams with MVP caliber players and championship aspirations. 

The Mavs started this game at a disadvantage, missing three rotation players in Washington, Exum, and Lively. However, the Nuggets bench hasn’t been anything to write home about this season, so it appeared that would bridge that gap. The Nuggets, without Aaron Gordon, ran an 8-man rotation and still their bench outscored that of the Mavs 20-16, with the Mavs bringing 4 men off the chairs. In my notes, I mentioned how tired Jokic looked and this 8 man rotation wasn’t doing him any favors. The only reason Jokic-Murrayless lineups weren’t completely abismal was due to MPJ’s hot hand when they were off the court and ability to create instant offense out of stagnant possessions. An NBA player’s ability to take “grenades” at the end of a shot clock and turn them into something can bring immense value to a team, and Porter Jr. showcased that last night. Still, the Nuggets were outscored by 9 in the second quarter, the period Jokic sat the most. With key players from the Maverick’s missing, we knew someone would have to step up to keep things competitive, and since no one off the bench wanted to leave any lasting impressions on the game, Kyrie decided to put up stats worth the impact of several, having one of the most efficient 40 point games of all time. 

Talking more about Kyrie’s performance the man had 43-5 and 5 on 77% from the field and 75% from three. My question is why didn’t he shoot more? I’ll give the Mavericks some leniency because when I first watched this game (which was very casual), I knew Kyrie was getting buckets, but when I checked the box score and saw a 40-bomb, I was shocked. Kyrie made this 40 look easy and it appeared the Mavs coaching staff didn’t notice until the game was on the line and they let him have the ball in his hands for the last few possessions. Simply stated, the offensive game plan for the Mavericks should have shifted sooner in order to get Kyrie the ball, because honestly, I’m upset with how efficient he was. I would have preferred Kyrie’s percentages gone down while allowing him to take more shots, as opposed to what we got, which is a 2 point loss for the Mavs where unfortunately, Kyrie was forced to leave stuff on the table to make room for Luka to continue his ineffective 3pt shooting this year (to give Luka some credit, he was playing through injury). 

While Jason Kidd is a seasoned coach, this game was the story of in game adjustments where he was on the losing one. As previously mentioned, Kidd didn’t allow for Kyrie to get off enough shots, but Michael Malone showcased a beautiful adjustment that may have won the nuggets this game. Being a Heat fan and former middle school basketball player, I’m no stranger to a good old zone defense. The Mavs were killer in the paint this game racking 62 paint points, fueled primarily by Daniel Gafford’s 16 on 7-9 shooting. The Nuggets’ coaching staff realized they had no way of stopping this through their traditional methods, so they implemented a lovely 1-2-2 zone. In this zone you have a chaser at the top (for which the Nuggets’ have two perfect candidates in Russell Westbrook and Christian Braun, two strong and athletic guards), two guys at the elbows, and two down low. This allowed them to pack the paint while daring the Mav’s to shoot. This ended with Daniel Gafford becoming a non factor offensively and forcing the Mavericks to attempt to combat this with three point shots that weren’t falling, no one on the Mavericks shot above 25% from three last night besides Kyrie. 

Now, you’ve heard me talk about Kyrie’s outstanding performance, but one man on the winning team did him one better. Nikola Jokic didn’t just have your average triple double, he had 15+ in points, rebounds, and assists. His totals were 37 points, 18 rebounds, and 15 assists. When listening to the Numbers On The Board podcast, Pierre suggested calling a 15+ triple double a quinceanera, which I do like, but I wanted to give my own two cents. For a little background, it was my Dad and Stepmom’s wedding anniversary this past weekend, and they give each other traditional gifts. Each Anniversary year has a certain category of things you’re supposed to give. For 15 years of marriage, you’re supposed to offer something crystal. So in order to allude to that and give a 15+ triple double a little extra flair, how about a “Triple Crystal” or “Crystal Double”? Regardless, we can all appreciate Jokic’s monstrous night and see him continue his insane 3pt shooting this season, going 3-3 from downtown. As mentioned in a previous blog Jokic’s best three point seasons have been his MVP ones, so while many people think a first time MVP in Shai or Luka will be crowned, I think this three point shooting to go alongside overall stellar performances points towards  Jokic coming home with the KIA MVP for the 4th time, putting him next to guys like Bron and Wilt, and not far behind Jordan. 

Taking a bigger picture approach here, I think these 2 teams should be considered real title contenders this year, especially considering they each have a top-2 player in the world. While the Nuggets’ bench does seem to be a problem at the moment, we all know how much more star power matters in the playoffs and just how much smaller rotations get. With them maintaining their core, and with the surrounding pieces finding their places on the team, and maybe a trade or two (which have been few and far between for the Nuggets historically), I have no problem imagining them coming home with the Larry O-B at the end of this season. As for the Mavericks, while they aren’t having the start to their season I’m sure they wished for, but this is all with Luka off to a slow start. I believe he will play himself into MVP form in no time. Luka, who had amazing chemistry with his big man last playoffs will now have a more experienced Derrick Lively and a full year to mesh with Daniel Gafford. We also cannot forget the impact of veteran leadership from top guys on the team, like Kyrie and Klay, can have a team so heavily fuled by young talent. This Maverick’s team, behind Luke and Kyrie, made it all the way to the finals last year, and there is no reason for me to believe they can’t do it again. 

Before giving you all some notes from the night I wanted to take a moment to show appreciation for the unappreciated hero of last night’s game for the Nuggets; Payton Watson. He gives it his all on the court, went 4-4 from three, isn’t afraid of a big moment, and will someone put this man on an all defensive ballot?!

Carlos’ Notes from the Night

• Klay Thompson seemingly hasn’t need a lot of transitional time to fit with the mavs
• Murray hits an and 1 to start the night and seems to have confidence, but once he cools off he loses it all
• There is so much size in the NBA
• I first realized MPJ’s defensive upside when watching the Heat Nuggets finals. How can that potential be tapped?
• If the nuggets need to blow it up I think they would trade MPJ, he can fit in a lot of teams. What kind of trade value does he hold?
• So many players with size 20 years ago wouldn’t do what they do. ( I was specifically talking about Luka and MPJ here). We have 6’10 guys running around the court shooting threes, but still can take teams by surprise by reminding them of their size. 
• What is the make of the perfect defender to “stop” jokic?
• MPJ easily harassed on D
• Guys like Braun and Watson are the kind of players you want off the bench, but since the Nuggets have been slowly losing depth since their Finals run and are currently dealing with injury they are forced into the starting 5
• Jokic passing looks stupid easy
• Strauther appears too antsy at times. Needs time in the game to settle,but once he does he’s a quality role player
• I don’t think Westbrook brings enough to the table as an off the bench role player unless he is running a second unit like CP3 on the warriors- Jokic gets gassed quickly, but is played as much as possible and it shows. We cannot get mad the nuggets because they can’t make much work without him. The only lineups without Jokic are ones with Murray at the helm, but with Murray’s slow start to the season make it exponentially harder. This also makes Westbrook’s role on the team confusing. I dont think he’s aging like other former stars. He hasn’t changed his play style since his MVP season so when he’s on he looks good, but when he’s off it’s hard to watch. 
• Neither the Bulls nor the wizards could bring out Gafford’s true potential, but I don’t give all the credit to the Mavs I give most of it to playing with Luka- if Gafford never played with someone like Luke I don’t know if his potential would have ever been realized
• The broadcasters are doing a better job identifying players tendencies than the defenders are. Why is it that the guys on the call are calling out Christian Braun to do a euro step before he does it, but Spencer Dinwiddie
• Based on some of the passes Jokic makes you would think he has a Birds Eye view of the court
• Christian Braun will have a 15+ year career
• Kyrie probably had the easiest 40 of all time. He did his thing and did what the defense told him to and it ended with buckets 
• Jokic has lazy plays, which is fine at times because he makes up for it everywhere else on the court. When your star player does this though it can spread throughout the team. Guys need to realize they aren’t Jokic, because its hard to watch rebounds drop and see Maverick Players get an easy 2 out of it. 
• For a guy with arguably the best handles of all time Kyrie barely dribbled the ball to get his 44 and when he did he didn’t waste any (referring to his dribbles)
• Kyrie should have shot more
• Jokic fights when it truly matters
• Calls can really dictate a game
• Gravity
• MPJ was ready when his number was called

Thank you